Dear America,
All this "sturm und drang" over concocting a settlement of the Ukraine invasion by Russia is nothing but a vast subterfuge without any real meaning. Vladimir Putin has never kept a promise in his life and the truth is like a foreign language to him. That's probably why Trump likes him; they have that in common. Even if Volodomyrr Zelensky could be prevailed upon to cede both Crimea and the entire Donbas region to Russia, any concomitant promise from Putin would be no more than dust in the wind. If he didn't just flout his commitment and invade Ukraine without excuse, he would fabricate some kind of pretext eventually to ostensibly, at least for the purpose of giving lip service to his treaty commitment to Ukraine, excuse himself for invading Ukraine again toward the end of usurping its sovereignty and installing some greedy toady to give lip service to the notion that Ukraine had just experienced a change in leadership rather than a conquest. In short, Trump is propounding a mythical pursuit of an impossible outcome. As long as Putin lives, he will never be brought to heel regarding any nation previously a member of the soviet union existing as an independent national entity...unless... Putin's sole ambition is an empire with himself on the throne, figuratively or literally, so the only way to rein him in is the one thing that will work, which is the one thing that everyone is conceding to Putin that it won't happen. Unless Putin would be risking an existential threat to his power, nothing will deter him from persisting in his abuse of international law toward the end of annexing Ukraine. The point is, unless Ukraine is admitted to NATO, no settlement of the current conflict perpetrated by Putin and Russia will be a permanent solution.
I would say that the only reasonable prospect for peace would be constituted by three things, each of the three being a sine qua non for enduring tranquility. First, Ukraine has been without Crimea for sixteen years now, and on that basis the Russian seizure of the peninsula should be something that Ukraine can swallow. And if Ukraine can then prevail upon the international community to make an exception to international law by recognizing Russia's soverainty over the territory, that sine qua non is feasible. But whether you call it national pride, an eye toward the perdurability of the nation or simply justice, the retention by Ukraine of the Donbas is also a sine qua non, and the reason is this. Something has to be demanded of Putin in the way of a sacrifice of his original ambitions in Ukraine in order to make palpable for him the fact that the peace agreement arrived at is a treaty embodying a compromise by all parties, and thus a fair exchange of benefits though the rest of the world will see no justice in Putin getting anything but the gallows. And then there is the third, most pivotal sine qua non: membership in NATO. Not some simulation of NATO's Article 5, not even an exact replica. It must be the case that any reneging on his commitment to refrain from invading Ukraine again constitutes an existential threat to Putin and an internationally recognized nation of Russia. In order to keep Putin from just recapitulating his imperious and imperial fantasy and marching into Ukraine again, he must know with absolute certainty that he will be confronting an entity comprising 32 nations covering an area, including the United States and Canada, of more than ten and a half million square miles with an enlistable population of more than 980 million people compared to Russia's less than 150 million people on less than 6.5 million square miles. Add to that disparity the fact of military power controlled by NATO with all of its resources all over the world compared to Russia's largest potential military muster, all of it in Russia proper, and it becomes clear that a breach of faith by Russia if NATO membership is granted to Ukraine would be like a petulant petty criminal challenging the largest police force in the world. Despite Putin's ever-present bravado he isn't stupid enough to risk everything he has accrued, including his personal wealth and his Dacha, against such precipitous odds. Even if you want to consider the nuclear saber that Putin would certainly rattle, his nuclear foe would be at least four well-armed nations, and then there would be the aftermath.
In the final analysis, this three part requirement of the parties to the Ukraine war is the only viable way to end that war and keep it from continuing to simmer until it erupts again. This is not the time for timorous rationalizations of the reality that prevails. I am not saying that Putin will certainly not engage in the folly of taking on most of the affluent, powerful world, but he will threaten to do so forever if he isn't confronted at some point. This is the time. Note, I am a pacifist, but enough is enough, especially when there is no workable alternative.
Your friend,
Mike
All this "sturm und drang" over concocting a settlement of the Ukraine invasion by Russia is nothing but a vast subterfuge without any real meaning. Vladimir Putin has never kept a promise in his life and the truth is like a foreign language to him. That's probably why Trump likes him; they have that in common. Even if Volodomyrr Zelensky could be prevailed upon to cede both Crimea and the entire Donbas region to Russia, any concomitant promise from Putin would be no more than dust in the wind. If he didn't just flout his commitment and invade Ukraine without excuse, he would fabricate some kind of pretext eventually to ostensibly, at least for the purpose of giving lip service to his treaty commitment to Ukraine, excuse himself for invading Ukraine again toward the end of usurping its sovereignty and installing some greedy toady to give lip service to the notion that Ukraine had just experienced a change in leadership rather than a conquest. In short, Trump is propounding a mythical pursuit of an impossible outcome. As long as Putin lives, he will never be brought to heel regarding any nation previously a member of the soviet union existing as an independent national entity...unless... Putin's sole ambition is an empire with himself on the throne, figuratively or literally, so the only way to rein him in is the one thing that will work, which is the one thing that everyone is conceding to Putin that it won't happen. Unless Putin would be risking an existential threat to his power, nothing will deter him from persisting in his abuse of international law toward the end of annexing Ukraine. The point is, unless Ukraine is admitted to NATO, no settlement of the current conflict perpetrated by Putin and Russia will be a permanent solution.
I would say that the only reasonable prospect for peace would be constituted by three things, each of the three being a sine qua non for enduring tranquility. First, Ukraine has been without Crimea for sixteen years now, and on that basis the Russian seizure of the peninsula should be something that Ukraine can swallow. And if Ukraine can then prevail upon the international community to make an exception to international law by recognizing Russia's soverainty over the territory, that sine qua non is feasible. But whether you call it national pride, an eye toward the perdurability of the nation or simply justice, the retention by Ukraine of the Donbas is also a sine qua non, and the reason is this. Something has to be demanded of Putin in the way of a sacrifice of his original ambitions in Ukraine in order to make palpable for him the fact that the peace agreement arrived at is a treaty embodying a compromise by all parties, and thus a fair exchange of benefits though the rest of the world will see no justice in Putin getting anything but the gallows. And then there is the third, most pivotal sine qua non: membership in NATO. Not some simulation of NATO's Article 5, not even an exact replica. It must be the case that any reneging on his commitment to refrain from invading Ukraine again constitutes an existential threat to Putin and an internationally recognized nation of Russia. In order to keep Putin from just recapitulating his imperious and imperial fantasy and marching into Ukraine again, he must know with absolute certainty that he will be confronting an entity comprising 32 nations covering an area, including the United States and Canada, of more than ten and a half million square miles with an enlistable population of more than 980 million people compared to Russia's less than 150 million people on less than 6.5 million square miles. Add to that disparity the fact of military power controlled by NATO with all of its resources all over the world compared to Russia's largest potential military muster, all of it in Russia proper, and it becomes clear that a breach of faith by Russia if NATO membership is granted to Ukraine would be like a petulant petty criminal challenging the largest police force in the world. Despite Putin's ever-present bravado he isn't stupid enough to risk everything he has accrued, including his personal wealth and his Dacha, against such precipitous odds. Even if you want to consider the nuclear saber that Putin would certainly rattle, his nuclear foe would be at least four well-armed nations, and then there would be the aftermath.
In the final analysis, this three part requirement of the parties to the Ukraine war is the only viable way to end that war and keep it from continuing to simmer until it erupts again. This is not the time for timorous rationalizations of the reality that prevails. I am not saying that Putin will certainly not engage in the folly of taking on most of the affluent, powerful world, but he will threaten to do so forever if he isn't confronted at some point. This is the time. Note, I am a pacifist, but enough is enough, especially when there is no workable alternative.
Your friend,
Mike
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