The deadline for enrolling for insurance on the federal and state healthcare exchanges came and went last night, albeit with an extension for whoever started the process prior to the expiration of the enrollment period. The total number of enrollees after six months of open enrollment is projected to be about seven million...just what the administration predicted before it became apparent that the website on which most people were expected to sign up for insurance was woefully inadequate. Yet, despite what looks like a successful effort to redeem both the program and the website, the Republicans are still trying to poison the public perception of the ACA (Affordable Care Act), continuing to register the same hyperbole with the news media as if it hasn't occurred to them that their may be seven million people out there whose experience will put the lie to the Republican propaganda program. Even with the prospect of that seven million people now being satisfied with the end result of the Obama administration's roll out of what the Republicans have reveled in calling "Obamacare," the Republicans are doubling down on their strategy of defaming President Obama and the ACA, running the risk that seven million people will possibly be calling them liars for doing so and casting their votes accordingly, or as Shakespeare might have put it, running the risk of being hoist by their own petard.
Add to that the fact that while they have continuously called for the repeal of the entire plan, over the four years since it was passed the Republicans haven't made a single proposal to replace it while the American people have clearly stated a preference for something rather than nothing when it comes to healthcare reform. The voters may favor altering the ACA to make it more effective, but they are in no way in favor of throwing it away and reverting to the past. Still, the Republicans have insisted on extending the battle even though they are armed with not so much as an idea at this point, which seems a rather imprudent strategy right now. They would be better served by initiating a cohesive set of revisions to the ACA, or perhaps proposing a comprehensive alternative to the program if they really do have the grand design that they have been hinting at for four years, but they have proffered neither. It's hard to know what they're thinking, or if they are thinking rather than just mustering for a battle they should not be able to win based on political calculation rather than pursuit of the common good for the American people. It's a big risk in that if the voters see all this for what it is and that seven million votes align themselves against Republican candidates, it could be twenty years or more before the Republicans have any power in Washington; it could easily take that long for them to regain the trust of the public. It's an all or nothing proposition, and given the most recent iterations of their scorched earth politics--debt ceiling arguments resulting in closing government offices down to the consternation and incitement of voters on both ends of the political spectrum and more recently, withholding unemployment benefits from people who have been unemployed for six months or more--it doesn't look like a sound choice. But I say, if they want to fall on their collective sword, let them.
Meanwhile, Democrats are staking out the moral high ground with a new strategy that the Republicans should have been monopolizing all this time: proposing to fix the ACA rather than repeal it. There is ever increasing evidence that the American people like the features of the ACA of which they have already taken advantage: keeping their children under 26 years old on their plans, access to insurance even when they have preexisting conditions, and now affordable health insurance, and subsidies for most of those who need them. If the stories about people losing desirable coverage because insurers stopped offering it are anything but apocryphal, they are at best few in number, and they cannot make up for the millions for whom the ACA has proven its worth in more ways than one, so the number of votes the Republicans can garner by pointing to those few cases is likely to be very few...certainly not enough to offset 7 million going the other way. And now, though The Senate has passed the unemployment insurance extension, those who cover Washington are suggesting that it cannot get through John Boehner's Republican controlled House of Representatives. That's another one and a half million voters who are pissed off at the Republicans this November.
With all that said, I thought the Republicans would lose on the bet they placed in 2010 but I was wrong, as I was in 2012 when they lost ground, but not as much as I thought they would. It is difficult to assess the mood of the electorate, especially seven months in advance, but like most progressives, I am cautiously optimistic. Republican fortunes did take a downward turn in 2012, and though the federal healthcare website was a disaster at the outset, it has recovered due to diligent effort by The Administration, and enough people have seen positive results from it that it should be a positive for the Democrats...even if only a marginal one. Be that as it may, it is fruitless to continue projecting what the American people will do in November 2014. Between the fact that a lot can change before then and the impression that the Republicans are starting to give that they are really only whistling in the dark, I'm optimistic. I really am.
Your friend,
Mike
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