Dear America,
Today is going to be an interesting day in American politics. Donald Trump is going to Mexico to meet with the country's president, Enrique Peña Nieto at Nieto's invitation, a meeting that has been described as being between "the two most unpopular men in Mexico." Nieto has a popularity rating in the low 20%'s range, and Trump is losing popular approval daily in his quest for the American presidency...so much so that he is beginning to hedge on bets that he was eager to be identified by at the beginning of his campaign. So you've got to hand it to Trump; he is voluntarily meeting with the man who has said point blank that there will be no payment by Mexico for an American border wall, that wall being Trump's salient promise since it fell from his careless lips in the first day or two of his quest for national power. And Trump is going to a country that he has characterized as sending us drugs, rapists and murderers from day one of his political life in this country, so what are the odds that there will be a popular groundswell of approval when he lands in Mexico City. My guess is that Nieto, unpopular as he is, is inviting Trump to Mexico despite the fact that the rest of the world's leaders take Trump seriously only in the same way as they do the Zika virus. He has calculated that he can embarrass Trump in public and thus aggrandize himself with his own people. The pair will meet today, and then, I would speculate, there will be either one joint press conference or two individual ones, and that's when we'll know for sure. But consider the prospects for Nieto.
If he bows to Trump's will, the Mexican electorate that dislikes him anyway will be enraged that their president attempted to mollify a bigot who ostensibly despises Mexico, and thus, by doing so he will be sealing his political fate...and not in a good way. On the other hand, if he humiliates Trump publicly, Nieto becomes something of a dragon slayer...the Mexican political equivalent of Saint George, and in a Catholic country, that could go a long way. So the odds in favor of Trump coming away from this confabulation with a political gain seem remote at best, because even if Nieto agreed, he has a legislature too, and his commitment means nothing without its approval in the form of a budget allocation, or of a treaty or something akin to it. Trump's opponents can just dismiss such a promise as one of Trump's bombastic gestures, and they'll be on firm ground. Thus, as far as political "cred" is concerned, Trump has nothing to gain, while if he fails to get this wall financed by Mexico, his claim to being able to accomplish such--a claim after which he always says, "believe me"--he will be discredited in front of the entire world, and the phrase "believe me" will become the subject of mockery and late-night taunts by television comedians rather than a mantra that he can intone every time he says something absurd. As to his support from constituents, they will see that his central boast is a complete myth at best, and more likely an utter self-serving fabrication. His putative artistry in making deals will be just another bit of braggadocio...a sort of declaration of character bankruptcy to go with the financial bankruptcies that he claims are just the way business is done. As a consequence, nothing he says will be credible in the future, and that will be the effective end of Donald Trump as a prospective president. You've got to give Trump credit; he is wagering all of his prospects on the good will of a man who has already repudiated him by rejecting his demands. Today is all or nothing for Trump, and he is letting an adversary make the choice. Whether it's a gutsy move or a stupid one only time will tell.
I understand that Trump doesn't see this a cockiness. He believes what he says, and hence he thinks that he can cause the President of another country to concede to him just on the basis of force of personality. But this decision is somewhat like Hillary Clinton's choice to put her emails on a private server. It isn't so much that these decisions have or will likely lead to political disaster that makes them negatively emblematic of the persons making them. It is that both decisions were imprudent at best right from the beginning. Clinton's server has been all over the news, and everyone in the nation has expressed an opinion on it, but Bernie Sanders said it best: it was the lack of judgment in Clinton's decision that made it notable. If Trump doesn't succeed--and what are the odds--the decision to even go to Mexico much less to meet with a politico who has nothing to gain by acceding to Trump's will make the imprudence of Hillary Clinton look like pure genius, and in the bargain, demonstrate that Donald Trump is nothing but a blustering blatherskite who lacks judgment: a narcissistic clown who would not be a strong leader, but rather would be the object of derision and jocund references in every capital around the world. I think Trump has been outfoxed...used by a smarter politician, and it cannot redound to his credit.
I am filled with glee at the prospect of Trump's political demise. My heart is racing as I write in anticipation of tonight's evening news. This is the best thing to happen to me in weeks. Imagine how Hillary Clinton feels.
Your friend,
Mike
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