Kudos from the most unlikely places have been pouring into the White House extolling the ostensibly bipartisan deal that The President brokered on the debt ceiling. He met with both Democratic and Republican congressional leaders and took the Democrats' side in forcing a three month increase rather than the eighteen month increase the Republicans wanted. At first the wishes of the two parties seems counterintuitive. The Republicans have made a regular practice of withholding their votes on the debt ceiling as a quid pro quo for something not just distasteful, but odious to the opposition. So at first blush it would seem that a shorter deal would give the conservatives in the Republican Party more chances to extort what they want from the Democrats. But this time, the thinking of the Republicans....I assume...was to look magnanimous and offer a long term extension, when in reality their goal was to get past the next election before they tried to trade a debt limit increase for less taxes for their constituents in the top 10%. It's not that clever a strategy and the Democrats saw through it immediately, but remarkably, Donald Trump saw through it too, and he too wants to avoid giving the Republican Congress that leverage they were seeking.
I don't think much of Trump's perspicacity, so I'm tempted to believe it was just a blunder, but even I can't see Trump being that dumb. What he has done is--and I don't know whether this just came to him in a flash or he planned it all along--he has started the process of winning over the liberal Democrats and undecided voters who voted against him in 2016 by forcing bipartisanship on those who have been only his reluctant allies in Washington so far. He apparently sees that the voters support the DACA executive order of his predecessor, but at the same time, he recognizes that he has to do something to repudiate it for the sake of keeping the diminishing base he still has at his side. Thus, with the six month deadline he gave the Republican-controlled Congress to do something for the "dreamers" protected by DACA, he has walked the tightrope between the two sides. Still, he needs something to happen between now and the end of the six month moratorium represented by the deadline or the problem will be right back in his lap, hence the short term debt limit arrangement. With the portent of another funding battle on the horizon for the Republicans, they understand that they are vulnerable a year from now when control of both The House and The Senate will be at stake. As long as the debt ceiling will still come up again before November 2018, the Republicans have to behave responsibly; they remember the backlash they suffered every time some loony like Ted Cruz or Newt Gingrich threatened to shut down the government. And that is as good for Donald Trump, who is already working on getting reelected, as it is for the Democrats, and frankly us, America.
So, what will the next year look like in political terms. My guess is that there will be at least one more debt ceiling expiration that has to be negotiated around. How long the next raise in the debt ceiling will be will depend on whether the Republicans' arms feel sufficiently twisted that they see reason in December and cut their losses. But my guess is that they won't because of internecine conflict between the right and farther-right wings of the party. So in December, Trump will broker another short to medium term raise--six months at most, which brings its end to a couple of months before the election and right in the middle of the party primaries that Republicans really don't want to have to worry about--and then, we will be able to smell the Republican feet burning as Trump holds them to the fire. In the interim between now and then, Congress will pass various fixes to Obamacare making it a moderate success rather than an outright failure as the Republicans like to characterize it, fair and equitable tax reform will be either passed or well on its way, DACA will be the law, all this voter fraud nonsense will be forgotten along with the Russia inquiry and Donald Trump will have broken his arm patting himself on the back...and then, guess what.
He might well get reelected, and he just might deserve it.
Your friend,
Mike
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