Dear America,
It occurs to me that the greatest threat to American democracy isn't another four years of Donald Trump. It's whether he will try to get the 22nd amendment to our constitution repealed. That is the amendment adopted in 1947--after FDR's third term was three quarters done--that limited presidents to two terms. Considering the monstrous size of Trump's ego, his feelings of affiliation with despots like Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un and to some grudging extent, Xi Jinping of China, and taking into account our president's socio-pathological leanings he is no doubt thinking, why not me.
It's just a thought...now. But considering everything we now know about Donald Trump, who wants to bet against it, no matter what one thinks about his presidency or him personally. If our country (remember: it takes three quarters of the states' legislatures passing an amendment in order for it to be adopted) didn't want FDR to continue as president, it probably seems doubtful that Trump could get the 22nd amendment repealed the same way, which is what he would have to do. But still, if he is reelected, we will be taking the chance that he might try, and if he tried, he might somehow succeed. Remember also, he lost the popular election in 2016 but here he is in the White House thanks to a technicality: the electoral college. I doubt that anyone anticipated such a freak occurrence, especially since it was the second time in less than twenty years. So who knows what other kind of freak occurrence might we suffer. No, the only way to be sure that Donald Trump can only do us harm for these four years is to keep him from getting another term. That's the real reason that the 2020 election is so important.
As long as The Senate is Republican, and that means as long as Mitch McConnell is majority leader and can pretty much do as he pleases with our nation, Trump will never be convicted at an impeachment trial. And if he is impeached and not convicted, it might tip the electoral balance in his favor. The American polity is approximately 33% Democrat and 26% Republican, the remainder of 41% being independent. 50% of independents lean Democrat and 42% Republican, the other 8% being completely unaffiliated. Thus, if statistics mean anything in this matter, Democrats can expect about 53% in a national election and the Republicans about 43%, leaving only 4% to go either way. That would seem a safe margin, but going into the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton had approximately a two percent lead over Trump, and her popular total came in at almost exactly that amount...and Donald Trump became our president. With the economy, read that as voter self-interest, working well, it would be easy for a Democrat to slip below 50% and for Trump to gain commensurately. That scenario turns what seems at first blush to be a relatively safe prospect into an iffy situation.
Here's the bottom line, and I hate to say this of some of my fellow Americans. But if Hillary's "basket of deplorables" are joined by enough people whose wages didn't grow for thirty years after Ronald Reagan foisted "supply-side economics" upon an unsuspecting population and a class of economists anxious to call themselves scientists instead of social scientists, or even worse, mass-psychology prognosticators, we might be in big trouble. So it's time to raise the alarm about the 22nd. Impeachment might be the most efficient guaranty that Trump won't get a third term, but I'm placing my bet on 2020. So register to vote, and then vote. Make your adult children do so as well. Recruit your neighbor as long as he or she is one of us. But no matter what, don't let Trump do what his ego will undoubtedly put him up to. The choice isn't between one Trump term and two. It's between one and three...or God forbid more.
Your friend,
Mike
Leave a comment