Dear America,
Donald Trump took another shot at self-aggrandizement yesterday in the form of his announcement that he was saving us all from NAFTA with his new "United States-Mexico Trade Agreement." Under NAFTA, tariffs had to be paid on all cars coming into the United States that had less than 62.5% American parts. Under Trump's new, revolutionary plan, it will be 75%. Also, 40% of the Mexican auto workers will who make the car will have to be paid $16 per hour or more. All of this begs this question: how does that help American workers.
Most of the electronics we use are made in China, so this tariff arrangement will punish
the Chinese, and probably the Koreans, and some workers in parts manufacturing plants might benefit, but the change seems so marginal and employment is already virtually full in this country that the benefit can't be more than miniscule. Of course, if Trump had concomitantly sent a bill to congress raising the national minimum wage to $16 in this country, that would be a different matter...but he didn't. Forty percent of Mexican auto workers are assured a living wage, but no Americans were protected in this agreement, and the underlying reason is that the problem with NAFTA was that our auto manufacturers used it to make sending our jobs to Mexico more profitable, and they sent a lot of them down there. Now those Mexican workers can add Donald Trump to their Christmas card lists right after the presidents of GM, Chrysler-Fiat and Ford. As to American workers, this seems like a classic case of thanks for nothing...like the tax cut, the restriction of the powers of the Federal Consumer Protection Bureau, deregulation of coal fired power plants and so much more.
What is encouraging is that despite Trump's people trying to spin this thing into something not just good but major, there seems to be a great deal of debunking going on. Congressmen were interviewed this morning and their praise was equivocal rather than lavish, if they praised the deal at all. I heard a former trade representative admit that while he thought the deal was great, it had more to do with limiting Chinese manufacturing of electronics than it did American auto workers when he was pressed by the interviewer. Bloomberg panned the deal as a lemon citing the meager effects it will have relative to the current deal. Even the Wall Street Journal panned the deal, albeit for all the wrong reasons. Likewise, the Washington Post was at best tepid in its account of what the deal entails.
My suspicion is that as the deal rolls toward congress, which has to approve it before it is anything but Trump's pipedream, a fuller analysis from the perspective of American constituencies will take place and the panning will become carnivorous. This being an election year, and the election being just over two months away, the Democrats, liberals in general, and probably conservatives too--as the WSJ pointed out the deal is further control by the federal government of trade, which the paper would prefer as a matter of editorial policy to be without any restrictions, or protections for that matter--will be as pejorative of Trump and his deal as they can be so as to protect their own incumbencies. I'm thinking that this is one time when DT's suede shoe tactics won't work even on his base, composed largely of working people as it is. And when the Wall Street Journal points out that much of what is in Trump's handy work is a rehash of the Trans Pacific Partnership for which, among other deals, he characterized his predecessor as the negotiator of the worst deal ever (he vacillates between and among NAFTA, the TPP and the Iran nuclear agreement here as Trump calls everything Obama or Clinton the "worst ever"), it's hard to see where Trump is going to find vindication.
I expect that he will come up with some excuse: leprechauns were in his ears or the Mexicans used the same ultra-sonic devices that made our Cuba diplomats sick to make him do it. But the reality should be sinking in to the political consciousness of even his faithful fans that DT is a bad dream, not a good friend. I can hope, can't I?
Your friend,
Mike
Leave a comment